Build a Business Case Without Inventing AI ROI

Saved minutes do not automatically become lower cost or new revenue. A credible AI business case shows how a change in work produces an observable business effect and makes uncertainty visible. This decision connects to Build an AI Strategy That Starts With Business Value and Turn Company Priorities Into an AI Opportunity Portfolio, which provide the strategic direction and portfolio context. Use this four-part leadership framework Baseline — Measure current volume, touch time, delay, rework, quality, and cost over a representative period. Benefit logic — Separate capacity, cost, revenue, quality, experience, and risk benefits. Full cost — Count discovery, data, integration, testing, review, monitoring, training, support, and replacement. Confidence — Use conservative, expected, and optimistic cases; label weak assumptions. A practical decision example A document team expects a 40 percent reduction in touch time, but exceptions still require review and only half the saved time becomes usable capacity. Leadership funds a bounded pilot to test those two assumptions instead of presenting the optimistic estimate as ROI. This is a hypothetical example; use your own baseline, constraints, and evidence. Evidence, governance, and responsible use Use the NIST AI Risk Management Framework to connect the initiative to governance, context, measurement, and ongoing management. The companion NIST AI RMF Playbook turns those functions into questions leaders can assign and review. The GAO AI Accountability Framework is useful for examining governance, data, performance, and monitoring across the system life cycle. Compare the plan with the OECD AI Principles, particularly transparency, robustness, accountability, and respect for people affected by the system. For generative AI, review the NIST Generative AI Profile and test representative cases using OpenAI’s evaluation guidance. Use the OWASP Top 10 for LLM Applications to discuss application threats before a model can access sensitive information or take actions. Check performance statements against the FTC’s guidance on AI claims, and review information handling with the FTC’s privacy and security resources. For a broader organizational management approach, study the ISO/IEC 42001 overview. Take this to the next leadership meeting Build a one-page case with the baseline, benefit equation, full cost, three scenarios, top three uncertainties, and the evidence that would approve or stop funding. Record the owner, evidence source, decision date, and what would cause the company to stop. The goal is not to make the document look complete. The goal is to make the next decision explicit, measurable, and accountable. Continue with Measure the Full Cost of an AI Initiative. Use Run a Quarterly AI Portfolio Review: Keep, Fix, Scale, or Stop to revisit the decision with current evidence.